BTC/USD cannot hold above the key level of $35,000 in any way, while its next reliable support on the daily chart will already be at the level of $30,000.
The reason for last week’s decline in BTC, which has intensified since Thursday after reaching a high of $43,500, was a wave of risk aversion in global markets, as the market was clearly in the red, and this week the key event for the currency will be the Fed meeting.
Since the wave of risk aversion is associated with rising bond yields, which in turn is associated with expectations that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy in the face of a dangerous increase in inflation, the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will undoubtedly directly affect BTC and the global market.
Strengthening the Fed's hawkish stance and confirming the possibility of an interest rate hike as early as March (or, worse, at an unexpected moment) could put downward pressure on BTC, but a more moderate surprise could, on the contrary, support it.
Risk aversion is also heightened by the prospect of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine after the US State Department recalled family members of its embassy staff in Kiev.
Meanwhile, another major piece of news was The New York Times' report that US President Joe Biden is considering sending several thousand US troops to NATO allies in Europe, as well as warships and aircraft.
In such a case, the next BTC support below $34k-$35k will be mostly a psychological threshold of $30k, and only a return above $40k will begin to ease the bearish pressure on this currency.